2023-24 NBA ROI Recap: Biggest Hits

No Clowning Around Here

Our ten biggest single-bet wins of the 2023-24 NBA season, from Dean Wade at +8000 on down, with the book, odds, stake and return for each, mostly in exact-method first-basket markets.

As we get ready for the next NBA season, we’re taking a look back at our 2023-24 NBA betting performance. Here were the top 10 biggest hits (by units returned):

The top 10 single-bet wins

• Dean Wade, first player to score exact method 2-pointer, Jan 1 2024
  • +8000 odds at MGM, 1.2u wager, 97u return
  • HAPPY NEW YEAR! Wade rarely took the first shot, and tended toward 3-pointers, so MGM gave us that big line.
• Vince Williams Jr., first player to score exact method 2-pointer, Jan 13 2024
  • +5000 odds at MGM, 1.5u wager, 74u return
  • Vince showed up 43 times in our plays, almost always at MGM, and hit 6 of them
• Noah Clowney, first player to score exact method 2-pointer, Apr 12 2024
  • +2200 at Draftkings, 3u wager, 65u ROI
  • This shot shows up twice - the beauty of correlated markets!
• Scottie Barnes, first player to score exact method 3-pointer, Dec 23 2023
  • +7000 at Fanduel, 0.9u wager, 65u ROI
  • Who says big men can’t hit from long range? This moved closer to +4000 by end of season.
• Noah Clowney, first player to score by team exact method 2-pointer, Apr 12 2024
  • +1300 at Draftkings, 4.5u wager, 59u ROI
  • The second hit from this same shot, both times at DK
• Trayce Jackson-Davis, first player to score by team exact method 2-pointer, Jan 2 2024
  • +470 at Caesars, 10.5u wager, 49u ROI
  • Our biggest individual wager of the year at 10.5 units, netted 49 for the courageous
• Markelle Fultz, first 3-pointer by team, Feb 6 2024
  • +4000 at Draftkings, 1.1u wager, 46u ROI
  • Fultz was overall a 10.3 unit return, so it was basically this and then nothing else
• Terance Mann, first player to score exact method 3-pointer, Jan 10 2024
  • +5000 at MGM, .9u wager, 45u ROI
  • We got value on TM frequently on first 3-pointer plays as well
• Nikola Jovic, first 3-pointer, Feb 13 2024
  • +1600 at Draftkings, 2.8u wager, 44u ROI
  • this was one of our first hits on the first 3-pointer market
• Trayce Jackson-Davis, first basket by team, Jan 2 2024
  • +500 at Fanduel, 8.1u wager, 40.5u ROI
  • our second biggest wager of the year (yeah January 2nd was a big day of betting) and the second leg of a massive ROI on TJD for the day

What the list has in common

Eight of the ten came from exact-method markets, where a book has to price not just who scores first but how. That’s where our exact-method models earn their keep, and it’s why the unit sizes are small: these are longshots, sized by Kelly, and most of them lose. The ones that hit pay for a lot of the ones that don’t.

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2023-24 NBA ROI Recap: 1692 Units Net Profit · Top 5 ROI Players · Biggest Hits