What Is a Home Run Prop Bet? 1+ and 2+ Home Run Odds, Explained
A home run prop is a bet that a named batter hits at least one home run in a game. Books list it as “to hit a home run”, “1+ HR” or “anytime home run”, and it is available on every batter in every starting lineup, usually from a couple of hours after lineups post until first pitch. It is the market behind our MLB home run picks.
The markets
- 1+ home run: the batter hits at least one home run. The standard market.
- 2+ home runs: at least two in the same game. Much longer prices, typically +1500 to +5000.
- 3+ home runs: rare and very long. A novelty at most books.
- First home run of the game, home run in the first inning and team totals exist at some books but are thinner markets with less liquidity.
How it is graded
- The bet wins on any home run credited to the batter in the box score, including an inside-the-park home run. A home run in extra innings counts.
- If the batter does not appear in the game, the bet is void and refunded at nearly every book.
- If the batter is not in the starting lineup but pinch-hits or enters as a substitute, most books grade the bet on whatever happens, so it stands and usually loses. A few void it. Check the market rules the first time you bet at a book.
- A game that is called early settles on the official box score if the game is official, and is void at most books if it is not.
- A rained-out game is void. A suspended game that is completed later is graded on the completed game at most books.
What the odds look like
Prices for 1+ home run run from about +200 for an elite power hitter in a hitter’s park on a windy day to +900 and beyond for a light-hitting middle infielder. The better the hitter and the better the conditions, the shorter the price. Because most batters homer in well under 20% of games, almost every price is a plus number, and almost every bettor loses most of their bets while waiting for the ones that pay.
Why line shopping matters here more than anywhere
Home run prices for the same batter routinely differ by 100 to 300 points between books, and on the longer prices the difference between +600 and +800 is the difference between a bet with an edge and a bet without one. In 2026 our alerts compared 13 sportsbooks and exchanges on every batter and listed each book where a play qualified. Part 3 of the home run series shows the math.
What drives the price
- The batter: raw power, contact quality, strikeout rate, and how they fare against the day’s starter’s pitch mix.
- The starting pitcher and, later in the game, the bullpen the batter is likely to face.
- The park: dimensions, elevation and the published park factors by handedness.
- The weather: temperature and, most of all, wind direction relative to that specific park’s orientation. Wind “blowing out” means different things at Wrigley and at Oracle Park.
- Lineup spot, because the leadoff hitter gets one more plate appearance than the ninth hitter on an average night.
Our model prices each pitch from Statcast data, simulates every game 20,000 times with that day’s lineups and forecast, and alerts a play when a book’s price is at least 2 percentage points better than the projection. The record since launch is on the MLB home run picks page, and the series starts with Part 1: Pitch Data.
What does “1+ home run” mean?
The batter hits at least one home run in the game. It is the same market as “to hit a home run” or “anytime home run”.
What happens to a home run bet if the player is scratched?
If the batter does not appear in the game at all, the bet is void and the stake is refunded at nearly every sportsbook.
Does a pinch-hit home run count?
Yes, if the bet stands. At most books a bet on a player who starts on the bench stands once they enter the game, so a pinch-hit home run wins. A few books void bets on non-starters; check the rules.
What are good home run odds?
Any price longer than the batter’s real chance that day. A 15% hitter is fair at about +567, so +700 is a bet and +450 is not, and the same batter’s price differs by book. That is what our alerts check 30 times a day.
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