Articles

Writing from Slam Dunk Bets on how we predict first baskets and home runs, season ROI recaps, and prop betting strategy for NBA, WNBA and MLB.

How the models work, how the seasons went, and how to bet what we project. Subscribe to the RSS feed to get new posts.

Line chart of cumulative net units for Slam Dunk Bets in the 2025-26 NBA season, rising from 0 in October 2025 to about 2,135 in June 2026

2025-26 NBA Recap: +2,135 Units at 16.3% ROI

nba
first-basket
roi-recap

Our 2025-26 NBA results: 16,949 tracked wagers returned +2,135 net units, a 16.3% return on units staked. Results by market, month and player, the largest…

2026-10-06
Slam Dunk Bets
Line chart of cumulative net units for Slam Dunk Bets in the 2026 WNBA season, rising from 0 in May 2026 to about 443 in early October

2026 WNBA Recap: +443 Units at 12.2% ROI

wnba
first-basket
roi-recap

Our 2026 WNBA results through October 4: 6,556 tracked wagers returned +443 net units, a 12.2% return on units staked. Results by market, month and player…

2026-10-06
Slam Dunk Bets
Engraving of a large early-1900s rotary newspaper printing press

How Do We Predict Home Runs? Part 4: Alert Alert, Home Run Edition

mlb
home-runs
methodology

Part 4: the alert pipeline, from Monday retrains and 6am refreshes to 30-minute ticks all day, weather resolved to each park’s compass bearing, and what a…

2026-08-04
Slam Dunk Bets
Vintage stock ticker machines under glass domes on a long desk in a marble room

How Do We Predict Home Runs? Part 3: From Projections to Edges

mlb
home-runs
methodology

Part 3: comparing our home-run probabilities to prices from 13 sportsbooks twice an hour, what counts as a playable edge, half-Kelly unit sizing, and why line…

2026-08-03
Slam Dunk Bets
Black-and-white photo of a large crowd in hats gathered outside a newspaper office to follow a baseball game on a scoreboard

How Do We Predict Home Runs? Part 2: Game-State Data

mlb
home-runs
methodology

Part 2: solving every plate appearance exactly across base-out states, then simulating each game 20,000 times with lineups, bullpens, weather and park factors…

2026-08-02
Slam Dunk Bets
A baseball pitcher mid-delivery with the batter waiting in the foreground

How Do We Predict Home Runs? Part 1: Pitch Data

mlb
home-runs
methodology

How we predict MLB home runs, part 1: Statcast’s 119 columns on every pitch, about 145 engineered features, and a chain of boosted-tree models for pitch type…

2026-08-01
Slam Dunk Bets
A toy clown balancing on a ball inside a dollar-sign coin tray full of quarters

2023-24 NBA ROI Recap: Biggest Hits

No Clowning Around Here
nba
first-basket
roi-recap

Our ten biggest single-bet wins of the 2023-24 NBA season, from Dean Wade at +8000 on down, with the book, odds, stake and return for each, mostly in…

2024-10-18
Slam Dunk Bets
Kick scooters lined up in a parking area

2023-24 NBA ROI Recap: Top 5 ROI Players

Scoot Tha God
nba
first-basket
roi-recap

The five most profitable players in our 2023-24 NBA first-basket record, led by Scoot Henderson and Bradley Beal, with bets, wins, net units and ROI for each…

2024-10-12
Slam Dunk Bets
Line chart of Slam Dunk Bets cumulative units for the 2023-24 NBA season, climbing from 0 to about 1,700 units over roughly 17,500 bets

2023-24 NBA ROI Recap: 1692 Units Net Profit

Not A Typo
nba
first-basket
roi-recap

The 2023-24 NBA season in one chart: 17,558 tracked prop bets and 1,692 net units of profit across first-basket and related markets, plotted bet by bet.

2024-10-11
Slam Dunk Bets
Close-up of an analog wristwatch face

Is There A Best Time Of Day To Bet First Baskets?

Late Alert Gold
nba
wnba
first-basket
strategy

Early lines or pre-tip lineup news? What we’ve learned about timing first-basket bets in the NBA and WNBA: grab soft early prices, top off when odds improve…

2024-10-09
Slam Dunk Bets
A red light on a black background

How Do You Predict First Baskets? Part 5: Alert Alert

nba
wnba
first-basket
methodology

How our Discord alerts work: the pipeline re-runs every 30 minutes, edges are grouped by game and player, and emoji flags mark new plays, new daily-best…

2024-10-07
Slam Dunk Bets
Line drawing of a straight razor

How Do You Predict First Baskets? Part 4: From Predictions To Edges

nba
wnba
first-basket
methodology

Turning first-basket probabilities into bets: semi-realtime odds from the major books, implied probability against our model, a 1.5% edge threshold, and…

2024-10-06
Slam Dunk Bets
Models walking a fashion runway

How Do You Predict First Baskets? Part 3: So Many Models

nba
wnba
first-basket
methodology

Inside the models: ensembles of model families for the tipoff, team to score first, player to score first for their team, and exact scoring method, plus…

2024-10-05
Slam Dunk Bets
Rows of bookshelves in a library

How Do You Predict First Baskets? Part 2: The Data We Use

nba
wnba
first-basket
methodology

The data behind our first-basket models: NBA and WNBA play-by-play and box scores, player bios, projected starting lineups, sportsbook game lines, and the…

2024-10-04
Slam Dunk Bets
Flowchart of the Slam Dunk Bets first-basket model pipeline from raw data to first player exact method model

How Do You Predict First Baskets? Part 1: High Level Overview

nba
wnba
first-basket
methodology

A map of our first-basket pipeline: clean and label play-by-play data, model the tipoff, team to score first and player to score first, then combine them into…

2024-10-03
Slam Dunk Bets
Slam Dunk Bets logo

Why First Baskets?

nba
first-basket
methodology

How Slam Dunk Bets started in 2020 modeling NBA first-basket props as betting went legal in Illinois, and why inconsistently priced, less-popular players made…

2024-10-02
Slam Dunk Bets
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